As the crypto community emerges from a challenging crypto winter, attention is shifting towards the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, a quadrennial occurrence set to take place in April 2024. This event, which happens every four years, involves cutting the market supply of new Bitcoin in half. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao and various Bitcoin analysts have recently begun to draw attention to the upcoming halving, signaling renewed optimism within the crypto space.
The current Bitcoin mining reward of 6.25 BTC per block will be reduced to 3.125 BTC per block with the next halving. Changpeng Zhao, also known as CZ, took to Twitter to initiate the countdown for the next halving, emphasizing that there are only 135 days left until this significant event.
Historically, the Bitcoin halving has been associated with bullish momentum for the BTC price, driven by supply and demand dynamics. The reduction of new supply, coupled with increasing demand, typically leads to a surge in the BTC price in the months following the halving.
In the previous bull cycle that commenced with the halving in May 2020, Bitcoin’s price traded below $10,000 approximately two months before the event. However, the pre-halving period witnessed bullish momentum, propelling BTC’s price beyond the previous cycle’s all-time high of around $17,000. Post-halving, Bitcoin entered a parabolic phase, reaching a new all-time high of almost $69,000.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital delved into the phases of a BTC bull cycle on X, emphasizing the distinction between pre-halving and post-halving events. According to the analysis, approximately 60 days before the halving, a pre-halving rally tends to occur as investors engage in “Buy the Hype” behavior, anticipating positive outcomes.
However, this euphoric surge is often followed by a retracement around the time of the actual halving. In 2016, the pre-halving retracement was -38%, while the 2020 retracement was -20%. Following the pre-halving retracement, a multi-month reaccumulation phase typically unfolds, characterized by modest gains and occasional drops, leading to investor impatience and disappointment.
The accumulation phase sets the stage for a subsequent parabolic surge, during which Bitcoin breaks out from the reaccumulation area, experiencing accelerated growth on its way to new all-time highs. As the community eagerly anticipates the next Bitcoin halving, the crypto space is rife with discussions about the potential impact on the market and the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price in the coming months.